Emissions Reductions Must Triple to Avoid Catastrophic Climate Change
A new report shows that without drastic action, Earth is headed for warming well beyond the safe 1.5°C levels.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its annual Emissions Gap Report and concluded that, at our current rate of action, Earth is set for 3.2°C warming by 2100 – a temperature far in excess of safe levels for the planet.
The report, compiled by 57 global leading scientists, assesses current and projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and compares them to the global reduction targets necessary to mitigate climate change.
It warned that unless emissions fall by 7.6 percent each year between 2020 and 2030, we will miss the 1.5°C target and face a world of growing climate instability.
Why is 1.5 degrees such a significant increase?
While it sounds like a low number, 1.5°C represents the average increase in global temperature. In some locations, heat will increase to even higher, intolerable levels.
Due to human activity, the planet has warmed 1°C since pre-industrial times (1880). This has caused sea levels to rise eight inches, and the fastest decline in Arctic sea ice in 1,500 years. Furthermore, the Himalayan glaciers – which provide water to 240 million people – are melting, and warmer ocean temperatures are causing floods, hurricanes, and storms.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, 197 nations agreed to limit Earth’s warming to 2°C by 2100, and ideally cap warming at 1.5°C to avoid runaway climate change. However, even a 1.5°C world will threaten low-lying territories with floods, and could leave millions of people to face drought, record heat waves, wildfires, and more intense weather.
At our current rate of emissions, we’ll likely soar past 1.5°C as early as 2030 and hit 3ºC by 2100. To avoid this, the UNEP warns our carbon reduction efforts must be tripled.
1.5 °C vs. 3 °C: What’s the difference?
The report states that by 2100, within one human lifetime, temperatures could exceed 3°C. This is double the acceptable or safe limit.
While a 1.5°C world will have dire consequences for humanity, a 3°C planet may be effectively uninhabitable in many locations. As a result, mass migration, refugee crises, poverty, and other related geopolitical pressures and strains will ensue.
Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist on climate change at Woods Hole Research Center, says a world with 3.2°C warming would experience “untold suffering” and “conflict”.
The UNEP report calls on governments to act immediately and intensify reduction efforts to limit global warming to a 1.5°C scenario.
Key areas for effectively reducing emissions include renewable and efficient energy, the electrification of heat and energy, and changes to transportation. The UN again emphasized the need for the world’s 20 richest countries (responsible for 3/4 of emissions) to transition away from fossil fuels.
The urgency to act.
At this point, the science is clear: Without drastic action, we’re destined for a world we wouldn’t recognize today.
“Our collective failure to act early and hard on climate change means we now must deliver deep cuts to emissions,” Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program, said in a statement announcing the findings. “We need to catch up on the years in which we procrastinated.”
Every organization, business, government, and individual can help reach the necessary climate targets by reducing their environmental impact. We are all in this together, and the time to act is now.
What’s next?
Countries committed to the Paris Agreement will meet in Madrid on Dec. 2 for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP25), and again in Glasgow in November 2020 to examine NDC efforts.
The full UNEP report, or an executive summary, can be downloaded here.